Sunday, 19 June 2011

What's the measure of a Greek default on the Richter scale?

I am not repeating things over and over again. Bear with me. I am just surprised not much bloggers are covering the Greece incident in this part of the world, namely Asia. Do you know if there were to be a Greek default; it would spin the whole world into another financial crisis?

As you probably know through my blog and the internet, benchmark market indices had fallen for six to seven weeks in Asia, so is Europe while the S&P eked out a weekly gain of less than 1% to break the six week down trend. Commodities prices had fallen, led by crude oil. Gold being a safe haven rose. There’s a reason why markets had been trending southwards for this period of time. And I sincerely hope that the perfect storm is not brewing.
I am not trying to repeat what you already know. It so happens that while I was looking through the local newspaper, I feel that there had been a lack of coverage. If getting the hard copy to be printed is an issue, the online interactive doesn’t provide much coverage either? Why is there a lack of coverage on the financial front?
Two years ago, when I speculated that a large investment bank were to collapse, most investors did not realize the devastating effect of a Lehman collapse. No one listened! At that time, no one is able to measure the scale of an ‘earthquake’ before the quake happens.
The ‘almost certainty’ of a Greek default is a sooner or later event that just waits to be triggered, says Alan Greenspan.  Read my post on the Story of a boy name Grease. A Greek default is just like an earthquake waiting to be triggered. The measure of its potential damaged can only be measured after the earthquake.
But where are the warning sirens, if any. Would Greece default? If not, would it happen in the near future? What plans do you have to be prepared for an evacuation? If Greece defaults, would that be a credit event. Would it spread like 'swine flu'? Which financial institution holds Greek debts? Would that be a next credit event? DO you have any investment products that are linked to Greece debts? Would your financial institution suffer from a credit event? Knowing your investments and investment vehicle would assist you to limit any potential damage in the near future. Don’t be another Minibond victim? If unsure, please check with your financial consultant. It is better to be prepared than to be sorry later.
There is light at the end of the tunnel. I believe there will be a 2nd bailout for Greece, there also could be a delay with a second bailout package but will the problem be resolved? The bailout is just a temporary solution. Speculators would probably pounce on the next victim who is on the edge. Or would the light be a runaway train! I wish I have a crystal ball. Is a Greek default all that really matters?
My fear and concern is that most investors do not know what their investments are! Ironic as it sounds; I believe most ‘salesman’ won’t know either! Most are still ignorant of what credit defaults are. (Where is the financial coverage?) If the earthquake is stronger than the recent earthquake in Japan, there’s no telling what the measure of the Richter scale would be! Would that create an effect of a tsunami taller than the recent incident in March 11 2011?
My simple words for today is; be knowledgeable. Be prepared. Know your investment risk. Know the financial climate! Have a strategy. Have a backup plan A and a backup plan B, too.
Live today for there will always be a market tomorrow! 

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1 comment:

  1. Risk and reward go hand-in-hand. The greater the reward the greater the risk. To the extremes, is to withdraw all euro-related investments or to add even more to existing euro-related investments. Greece has not reached the debt ceiling by imf, and still has some "buffer" for borrowing.

    I would worry more about US :)

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