I like to be proven wrong sometimes...

Year 2011 was a very volatile year. Topping in Q2 2011 and then falling in Q3. Global equity markets reversed in 2011 Oct and kept on climbing. That’s when I started to speculate that we’re out of the bear market.

Though the market was volatile, I mentioned the markets were trending North despite the volatility. Bottoms were made at 10,400 and 11,250. Who would know where the Dow would meet resistance in the future?

The rally stalled in Nov having gained support in late November. Equity markets continued to climb assisted by the Santa rally commencing mid December. Again, the post was reinforced that we’re out of the bear market.

Is it time to go in? Should we chase the market?

In my last post, I hinted that the Dow would meet resistance at the 12,800 level. Did you all notice? On Jan 26^th, the Dow broke through 12,800 to 12,830 thereabouts but closed below the 12,800 level. From there onwards, the Dow had closed lower for the next two days.

The rest is history? Who would have known that the Dow would meet resistance at the 12,800 level?

I like to be proven wrong. So far, the market had proven me right for many a times! The US major indexes has risen 20% so far. A correction would be healthy.

What’s in store for the Dow’s near future?

·         A trading range from 12,300 to 12,800?

·         Market to fall below 12,300?

·         Markets to consolidate and head northwards, break 12,800 for a stretch target at 13,800?

We like to hear your views! What’s your opinion?

My daughter Michele once asked, Daddy, how do you spell a blind pig? Puzzled, bewildered, I gave up. The answer is PG because a blind pig has no eyes (I). That’s the initials for Portugal and Greece. Listen closely to what’s brewing up in Portugal!

For the record, we’ve been ‘long’ since October 2011. The profit is reasonable and decent. So far we’ve been invested in Asia Pacific with additional concentration on South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong and of course, Indonesia with a small percentage in India for the more aggressive risk profiles! Our speculation in the above could not be better.

Gentle reminder on investing. Follow your strategy.

·         Have a good entry level

·         A support and

·         Resistant level.

·         Cut your lost on your portfolio no matter where the market is heading. This avoids an even bigger lost.

·         Ride your profits until resistant levels are tested and to take profit where resistance level looks difficult to be breached!

Happy Investing!

My AUM performance for Year 2011

(Posted 1040am Friday)

In my previous post on global equity performance, the median on the average is (slightly above) a loss of 20% with the best performer Indonesia at -0.7% and the weakest performer Greece at -50.31%.

As for my (Asset Under Management) AUM for Year 2011, the median is -2.32% with the best performer at 3.85% and the weakest performer at -12.35%. 67% of investors had less than 3% of losses.

As everyone probably knows, the higher the risk, the higher the returns and if we want higher returns, we need to take higher risk!

During the 1^st half of 2011, we were able to eke a positive return of 2 to 3%. As I posted the fall of financial markets in Q3, we manage to shelter from the bearish market and cushion the fall to a loss of 5%. Taking DCA positions commencing Q4 minimize the loss and hence -2.32%.

Through a combination of fundamental, technical and understanding global market sentiment, pro-active and reactive management was exercised. We allowed gains to run. Similarly, we cut losses at technical support levels thus avoiding huge losses. In recognition of bear traps, we avoided a majority during the 3^rd quarter.

How do we see the market from here onwards?

You would probably know,

·         the US economy had been having better than average economic data. The stock market still holds good/well above 12,300 with a range to 12,800.

·         The Europe sovereign issue is less of a threat, despite S&P downgrades of several European countries including France and well as the EFSF. Bond auctions have been impressive!

·         China’s GDP elevated Global markets sentiment earlier this week.

·         Global MPM supports growth rather than combating inflation.

·         Manufacturing data has improved.

To expect the unexpected

·         Future credit rating downgrades

·         Orderly/disorderly Greece default

·         Noises coming from China and Europe.

May I take this opportunity to wish all celebrating the Lunar New Year

KONG XI FA CAI

AND May the Year of the Water Dragon bring lots of water, good health and prosperity to one at all

The year ALL stock markets failed to deliver as of Dec 15th 2011.

The year ALL stock markets failed to deliver as of Dec 15^th 2011. Correction made for date to December 15th 2011 on Jan 15th 2012.

The following is an extract from a UK financial website “This is Money”.

The best performer is Indonesia followed by Philippines, Thailand, US and Malaysia, out of which, 4 out of 5 comes from South East Asia! Singapore was -22%. There’s no prize for the worst performer (Greece).

The BRIC countries delivered -26%, -25%, -37% and -22% respectively.

For the record, the financial website missed out Venezuela which returned an astounding 80% for the year 2011!

We like to hear from you. Please share your success with us for Year 2011 performance.

Huh? Chicken Little

When I started blogging that financial markets were heading for a downturn at end of Q2 2011, most of you were thinking, there’s Chicken Little.

Again, when I started posting ‘Are we out of the bear market’ most of you said there’s Chicken Little again. In one of my previous posts, I mentioned that every dip is an opportunity. There’s Chicken Little again.

Other Chicken Little predictions:

Gold plunging from the high of US 1900 to US$ 1535 thereabouts

Indonesia would be one of the best equity Index in 2011.

Inverted Yield curves for China, India, Brazil and Russia?

How was Dow supported at 10400 (Oct 4^th) and 11250 (Nov 25^th)? When Dow broke 12,300 after Dec 29^th 2011, there was no looking back. I would see that this would be a support for Year 2012!

Every speculation was based on fundamentals, technical, investors’ mindset or all of the above!

The rest is history!

And what’s’ in store for 2012, stay tuned! For your information, personal investment planning are open for 2012.