Wednesday 22 June 2011

Déjà vu - the destination for Greece is 'almost certain'.

The most likely explanation of déjà vu is not that it is an act of "precognition" or "prophecy", but rather that it is an anomaly of memory, giving the false impression that an experience is "being recalled". An extract from Wikipedia.
Would history itself? Are we going to witness the Global financial crisis of 2008?
The vote of confidence in Greece is a no-brainer. It has to pass. Otherwise Plan B needs to be executed. “B” is for Bankrupt. Therefore, here’s plan A, the drama.
Here’s the drama. We have until Jul 3rd before the European finance ministers meet to decide if Greece were to receive the next tranche of bailout funds.
In my opinion, a Greek default is an almost certainty. But how well can it be played (here’s the “wayang-wayang”) to avoid it from spreading a ‘swine flu’ epidemic into PIGS and globally? Will it shatter confidence in financial, global markets and Déjà vu – another global financial crisis?
Europe has read the ‘book’ on the global financial crisis. In order to prevent a Déjà vu, they hope that time will be prevent catching an on-coming samurai sword.
The essence is time. (Time heals, Time prevents)
·         Time to educate/prepare the public.
·         Time to calm the markets.
·         Time to contain the contagion.
·         Time for preparation to make right the best situation from the worst outcome, etc.
·         More importantly, time to build CONFIDENCE.
As you will notice, the key difference between Lehman and Greece is that the drama is being played in slow motion as compared to then than now. This gives the financial institution, and ‘all’ to prepare. As of late, there are reports surfacing that some financial institution had disclosed their minimum holdings of debts in Europe. Are you prepared?
Meanwhile, between now and July 3rd, we’ll have to watch how the drama unfolds
·         How Greece will play the austerity plan
·         How Greece implement the measures
·         How Greece convince her people
·         How Greece pass the plan, and last but not least
·         How IMF and the EU finance ministers votes the plan and subsequently releases the next tranche of funds!
Similarly, discussions will be held later by EU officials this week on a new Greek bailout package. The drama is not over. The serial continues. Time is being played to cushion the whole financial market.
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