Could US indices end with 7 straight weeks of losses?

The blogspot that precedes the headlines.

As you probably know, the US stocks were down for six straight weeks last Friday. Would there be a seventh? The data shows where they closed last Friday and where it is today. Original post in black. Updates in blue. Come back to this post for updates.

	Last Friday  close	Singapore Fri 0300	Value to close +ve for the week	%	Probability
DJIA	11,951.91	11900.45	51.46	0.43%	Possible
S&P	1,270.98	1259.15	11.83	0.94%	Weak
NASDAQ	2,643.73	2603.95	39.78	1.53%	Weak
	Last Friday  close	Thursday Europe close
FCHI	3,805.09	3,792.31	12.78	0.34%	Possible
GDAXI	7,069.90	7,110.20	(40.30)	-0.57%	Good
FTSE	5,765.80	5,698.81	66.99	1.18%	Weak
	Last Friday  close	Thursday Asia close
^SSEC	2,706.18	2,664.42	41.76	1.57%	Weak
^HS I	22,420.37	21,953.11	467.26	2.13%	Weak
^BSESN	18,268.54	17,985.88	282.66	1.57%	Weak
^N225	9,514.44	9,411.28	103.16	1.10%	Weak
^STI	3,078.35	3,020.13	58.22	1.93%	Weak

Updated 20110617 by Bloomberg: Asian Stocks Headed for Biggest Weekly Losing Streak in 7 Years on Greece 

The probability for the equity index to close the week on a positive note is the value it needs to close by. By looking at the (%) the probability could either be weak, possible or good. Anything could trigger bullishness or bearishness, thus we will need to see the tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears. By closing, we will know.

Current global sentiments are

·         Europe debt crisis deepens; speculator bet of a Greece default. Everyone knows this. But, why wasn’t this event triggered much earlier but only recently? Now, coupled with weak (global) economic data, this is driving investor’s confidence much lower; sentiments lower.  If you are investment savvy, you would know the answer. This is food for thought?

·         US recovery falters with weak economic data. (Latest: Weekly job benefit fell to 414,000 and Housing starts and Building permits came in better than expected – good for opening. The Philly Fed data came in at -7.7 which would be bad for closing)

·         In Asia: Korea, China and India raise rates to curb inflation.

Updated 20110617 by Bloomberg Japanese stocks decline on concern Greek debt crisis is worsening by MarketWatch Asia weakens as Greece, U.S. concerns linger

In conclusion, slow global growth concerns and Greece are supporting the bears. There had not been a string of good news lately. Let’s hope that the US consumer sentiment data, leading indicators and quadruple witching may catalyst to prop up any bullish sentiment on Friday. Else, investors would sell lower before the week close. I can’t imagine what the headlines would be over the weekend.
Updated 20110617 by CNBC Friday look ahead: Greece, Quadruple Witch and Consumer data,
What Happens If Greece Defaults?

Meanwhile, I am confident your insurance agents or financial consultants are as competent, advising you the best strategy there is. A word of caution - be cautious if ‘some’ were to advise – ‘buy more’ because it is cheap; it is long term, market will go up later. That is true but if you had heard of this since early May, you would have suffered losses now (say 5%) and might need the market to recover ‘more’ (say 6%) just to break even.
I’ll sign off here, have a great weekend. Watch this blog for the weekly summary before Monday, Jun 20^th.