Thursday 2 June 2011

US economic data continues to weaken

US economic data continues to weaken and we saw the Dow sliding more than 300 points the last two days. You might need to read the previous article on 'Sell in May and go away' before proceeding.

Below in an extract of the US economic data in May and extended to current June 3rd 2011.
Date Statistic For Actual Prior Revised From
2-May Construction Spending Mar 1.40% -2.40% -1.40%
2-May ISM Index Apr 60.4 61.2 -
3-May Factory Orders Mar 3.00% 0.70% 0.10%
4-May MBA Mortgage Index 29-Apr 4% -5.60% -
4-May Challenger Job Cuts Apr -5.00% -38.60% -
4-May ADP Employment Change Apr 179K 207K 201K
4-May ISM Services Apr 52.8 57.3 -
4-May Crude Inventories 30-Apr 3.421M 6.156M -
5-May Initial Claims 30-Apr 474K 431K 429K
5-May Continuing Claims 23-Apr 3733K 3659K 3641K
5-May Productivity-Prel Q1 1.60% 2.90% 2.60%
5-May Unit Labor Costs Q1 1.00% -1.00% -0.60%
6-May Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 244K 221K 216K
6-May Nonfarm Private Payrolls Apr 268K 231K 230K
6-May Unemployment Rate Apr 9.00% 8.80% -
6-May Hourly Earnings Apr 0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
6-May Average Workweek Apr 34.3 34.3 -
6-May Consumer Credit Mar $6.0B $7.6B -
10-May Export Prices ex-ag. Apr 1.00% 1.40% 1.30%
10-May Import Prices ex-oil Apr 0.60% 0.70% 0.60%
10-May Wholesale Inventories Mar 1.10% 1.00% -
11-May MBA Mortgage Index 6-May 8.20% 4% -
11-May Trade Balance Mar -$48.2B -$45.4B -$45.8B
11-May Crude Inventories 7-May 3.781M 3.421M -
11-May Treasury Budget Apr -$40.5B -$82.7B -
12-May Initial Claims 7-May 434K 478K 474K
12-May Continuing Claims 30-Apr 3756K 3751K 3733K
12-May PPI Apr 0.80% 0.70% -
12-May Core PPI Apr 0.30% 0.30% -
12-May Retail Sales Apr 0.50% 0.90% 0.40%
12-May Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.60% 1.20% 0.80%
12-May Business Inventories Mar 1.00% 0.70% 0.50%
13-May CPI Apr 0.40% 0.50% -
13-May Core CPI Apr 0.20% 0.10% -
13-May Mich Sentiment May 72.4 69.8 -
16-May Empire Manufacturing May 11.9 21.7 -
16-May Net Long-Term TIC Flows Mar $24.0B $27.2B $26.9B
16-May NAHB Housing Market Index May 16 16 -
17-May Housing Starts Apr 523K 585K 549K
17-May Building Permits Apr 551K 574K 594K
17-May Industrial Production Apr 0.00% 0.70% 0.80%
17-May Capacity Utilization Apr 76.90% 77.00% 77.40%
18-May MBA Mortgage Index 13-May 7.80% 8.20% -
18-May Crude Inventories 14-May 3.703M 3.703M -
18-May FOMC Minutes May - - -
19-May Initial Claims 14-May 409K 438K 434K
19-May Continuing Claims 7-May 3711K 3792K 3756K
19-May Existing Home Sales Apr 5.05M 5.09M -
19-May Philadelphia Fed May 3.9 18.5 -
19-May Leading Indicators Apr -0.30% 0.70% 0.40%
24-May New Home Sales Apr 323K 301K 300K
25-May MBA Mortgage Index 20-May 1.10% 7.80% -
25-May Durable Orders Apr -3.60% 4.40% 4.10%
25-May Durable Orders -ex Transportation Apr -1.50% 2.50% 2.30%
25-May FHFA Housing Price Index Mar 0.30% -1.50% -1.60%
25-May Crude Inventories 21-May 616K -15K -
26-May GDP - Second Estimate Q1 1.80% 1.80% -
26-May GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q1 1.90% 1.90% -
26-May Initial Claims 21-May 424K 414K 409K
26-May Continuing Claims 14-May 3690K 3736K 3711K
27-May Personal Income Apr 0.40% 0.40% 0.50%
27-May Personal Spending Apr 0.40% 0.50% 0.60%
27-May PCE Prices - Core Apr 0.20% 0.10% -
27-May Michigan Sentiment - Final May 74.3 72.4 -
27-May Pending Home Sales Apr -11.60% 3.60% 5.10%
30-May No data
31-May Case-Shiller 20-city Index Mar -3.61% -3.34% -3.33%
31-May Chicago PMI May 56.6 67.6 -
31-May Consumer Confidence May 60.8 66 65.4
1-Jun MBA Mortgage Index 27-May -4.00% 1.10% -
1-Jun Challenger Job Cuts May -4.30% -5.00% -
1-JunADP Employment ChangeMay38K 177K 179K
1-Jun ISM IndexMay53.5 60.4 -
1-Jun Construction Spending Apr 0.40% 0.10% 1.40%
2-Jun Initial Claims 28-May 422K 428K 424K
2-Jun Continuing Claims 21-May 3711K 3712K 3690K
2-Jun Productivity-Rev. Q1 1.80% 1.60% -
2-Jun Unit Labor Costs-Rev. Q1 0.70% 1.00% -
2-Jun Factory Orders Apr -1.20% 3.80% 3.40%
2-Jun Crude Inventories 28-May 2878K 616K -
3-Jun Nonfarm Payrolls May - 244K -
3-Jun Nonfarm Private Payrolls May - 268K -
3-Jun Unemployment Rate May - 9.00% -
3-Jun Hourly Earnings May - 0.10% -
3-Jun Average Workweek May - 34.3 -
3-Jun ISM Services May - 52.8 -


Referring back to the article, Sell in May and go away note the highlights in Red.

And before the release of the US Nonfarm payrolls tonight at Singapore time 830pm, I would expect global equity markets to be fairly conservative. Depending on the outcome of the Nonfarm report and how global investors interpret the data, it could mean the trigger for markets to go further South or reverse the current trend for the next week or so.

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