Market trend PRE Jackson Hole

Let’s recap on a series of events Pre Jackson Hole back to early May 2011

I shared my Insight to Financial Markets with a post Without news on QE 2.5, QE2 coming to an end accelerates unwinding of carry trades on 20110511. I closed the post with the following conclusion.

‘In conclusion, unwinding of carry trades, had begun, that is, seeking lesser risk from high yielding assets to lower risk assets, namely the US dollar.

While I do not know how long this would continue, I would stay on the sidelines until volatility had simmered down’.

My next post was Global Financial Crisis, QE1, QE2, What's next? Part 1 dated 20110518. Here I shared how QE1 and QE2 boosted high yield assets and the consequences of the end of QE2.

On a related post to Global Financial Crisis, Global Financial Crisis, QE1, QE2, What’s next? Part 2 was posted on 20110609. What’s next was an introduction to inverted yields and the identification of countries that would be hit hardest.

By now, you would probably agree that the sequence of events took place as speculated. The hardest hit major benchmark indexes (till date) are Brazil, India and China amongst the top 5!

I was very concerned with the audience and subsequently shared my weak sentiments by posting Don’t fall into bull traps on 20110625.

On my post The worst has yet to come I warned the audience to BACK OFF dated 20110712 and shared that the US corporate earnings would not boost the US benchmark even though if the quarterly results were favorable.

As you probably know, all the above post was unfolded piece by piece. This also led to major benchmark indices subsequently falling into ‘correction’ or ‘bear markets’.

In my pursuit to Sun Tzu’s Art of War principles, constant monitoring and proactive management, my Generals who were sidelined did well. In other words, not one soldier died when capitulation was experienced.


If you agree that my speculation is not that bad, I hope you could give me a thumbs up by adding (+1) or sharing this post with your friends, relatives including those who may need Insights to Financial Markets sharing.

In my next post, the topic will be Market trend POST Jackson Hole! I'll discuss my speculation where the markets will be headed.

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