The Dow is being attack by household lizards at the 13000 level. But, that is as far as it can go - similar to household lizards which loiter just around the ceiling.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Greek deal is done. It is history. There is no default (yet!). The can is just kicked further down the road.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Greek deal is done. It is history. There is no default (yet!). The can is just kicked further down the road.
I repeat, "The Greek deal is done". What’s next? What is the GDP and Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and Retail Sales telling me?
Sometime back in my earlier posts, I mentioned that global GDP is getting weaker in most countries. The number is still rising at an alarming rate (and I am concerned, are you?). The latest update; 21 countries registered a negative QoQ growth namely,
· The Euro area, UK, Germany, Spain, Italy; and
· Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand (which registered the largest negative growth of -10.7% QoQ and -9% YoY).
While the BDI projected better PMI data back in Q4 2011, the latest BDI trend is projecting weak PMI or factory orders. Coincidentally, this week – the HSBC Flash PMI for China, the PMI readings for part of Europe had been weaker than consensus. Am I correct?
I will not go into details of how many indicators assist me to make decisions, but I would like to share the above with you. Hmmm, something is amiss! There seems to be one more data that is not within my radar. Can someone share/hint what could be 'the' trigger?
At end of Q2 2011, my indicators help me speculate global bear markets; at end of Q3 my indicators helped me to speculate bear market reversals.
My reading is that while the long term trend is very bullish, the short term trend would be met by a mild correction in the next 3-6 weeks. The above is just a speculation. I have done my sharing.
If you’re still invested, you should ride the waves as long as possible. However, you need to position yourself close to exits.
As of current, I had made three speculations on Market trends so far. The Market has proven me right TWO times. Will I get it right for the third time? Again, TIME will be the judge. What’s your opinion?
I really would like to hear from the audience, that is, if the above indicators mean anything to YOU.
On a separate matter, I had been receiving an awesome number of pageviews this month - probably a record exceeding 5000 before the month is up. Thank You.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI am pleased to say that this is my first time, the pageviews had exceeded 5000 - a personal best in any one month (or less than a month), Thank YOU.
Imo, it could probably be due to market conditions and timely posting. I guess your assistance to forward my posts helps a lot. I would not be able to do it alone. Please keep forwarding so that i could reach a larger audience.
And Thank you for your emails and compliments regarding my unqiue analysis. Also, keep them coming - this is the best sort of encouragement for sharing and posting my blogs.
And for your personal emails - of course, thry would be P&C. Keep them coming.
Last but not least, have a great week investing - as always, the market is there the next day - do not be greedy!
Hi Patrick,
ReplyDeleteHow are you reading the VIX and US dollar index? What about the deteriorating US economy and the on-going recession in EU countries?
Hi Pika,
ReplyDeleteSince the beginning of the year, the VIX is ranging between 17 and 22. My reading is fair. Should it get lower, that is below 15, i would feel that most of the traders will get complacent.
For the USDX, it topped around 81.5 and reversed course on Jan 16th. It's trading between 78.5 to 80.1. Again, my reading is fair.
As you probably know, both the above indicates risk ON. Where it heads from here is anybody's guess. As i mentioned, the BDI and respective Q4 GDP data might give a clue where it's heading.
Have you been noticing the USDJPY? The Yen is weakening! Suprised? No. It may also indicate that carry trades are on-going!
On going recession in EU countries. Yup, it's there. They just revised the GDP projection today.
Deterorating US economy. Yup, its there - no doubt about it. Everyone knows. At least when it happens you don't get the unexpected.
Here's the point you should be asking. We ALL know it's out there. We just have to read the news CONSTANTLY and speculate when this event could be triggered.
For e.g. we all know Greece had a problem back in Dec 2009, right? It was not triggered until May 2010. Hence, the point is we know it's there but we have to wait for the big boys to say, it's time we trigger this event. Got it.
Hence, ride your profits as far as you can and stay near the exits till you 'feel' the event is gonna trigger soon. Got me? You need to have most if not all the knowledge and news to prepare for the unexpected!
If you have further queries, please do not hesitate to comment or you may go offline with me at seettpat@gmail.com
Hi Patrick,
DeleteThanks for your insight :-)
Hi Pika/All,
DeleteHere's the CNBC article published today, just after my article tug-of-war; http://www.cnbc.com/id/46483737
Hmmm, very familar. It discusses how the VIX is below 20 and investors are getting complacent - ignoring most noises! and the term used - tug of war!
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI had been following your blogs for some time and am amazed with your analysis. Your speculation and analysis is scary. With the a US indices breaking new high I was certain the market would prove you wrong for once. Apologies, the market proved you right again. Scary, very scary.