As you probably know, the S&P is forming a Golden Cross lately. This is where the 50 days moving average passes through (up) the 200 days moving average. To most technicians, it would be a bullish signal for the US markets! Or is the S&P forming a doji?
The market is there always. Be patient and wait up till US nonfarm payrolls registers on Friday. In addition, we have to wait how the market interprets the nonfarm payroll data and closes for the week. Whichever, the Golden Cross or the Doji, we have all the time to react after the market closes. Just be patient!
Meanwhile, the noise from Europe has been holding global markets. Greece is for one and Portugal for the other.
Is Europe playing time for an orderly Greece default?
Bond yields for Portugal auction dictates the markets lately. One day shooting above 15% while shorter bond auctions bring the yield down. Whichever, my advise has always been ‘be patient’. Think of the bright side, no matter the volatility, the lows are getting higher! Correct me if I am wrong?
And the Dow, it’s testing the 12,800 level again. As you probably know that I am holding long positions, I’ll hold till it breaks the 12,300 level. Otherwise, the S&P Golden cross and the Dow 12.800 resistance level looks attractive for more DCA!
The Global PMI data which includes Germany, China is posting better growth. This eases the global growth concerns seen one year ago.
In brief, my other speculation is the current mood is RISK ON.
· Look at the Euro! The Aussie
· Gold, which has always been a primary beneficiary for the QE
· The weakening UD dollar index
· VIX is below 20!
Talking about QE, what would be the effect of high yield assets if there is a combination of QE from Japan? Europe? US? and the UK? You would probably guess the answer from here onwards, right?
Are you all still skeptical? Are you all still bearish? If the opportunity arises, buy and average your position for every dip. Until the unexpected occurs, I think it is a speculative opportunity to average up your portfolio for a potentially higher yield!
The other advice is do NOT be greedy. The market is always there the next day!
Notes: As you probably know, I’ve been posting fewer blogs. The rationale so far has been my speculative posting has been correct so far, while ignoring the noises. Despite the noises, the lows are getting higher and the resistance has either being tested or broken.
Feel free to drop me a line if you have concerns with your current portfolio. My advise will always be based on your investment objective, time horizon and risk profile.
Happy Investing! What a great Year for the start of the Water Dragon!
the golden cross have not always generate good profits. in fact it has given up quite a fair bit. even my indicator of 17/43 EMA weekly which is clearer gave up rather alot as well.
ReplyDeleteas long as you catch the middle part i think its ok.
Nice article :)
ReplyDeleteHi Ray,
DeleteThank you for your input. The climax would be tonight - Nonfarm payroll data. This would point where markets would be heading the week following.
I followed the Press conference delivered to the House yesterday. Press conference plus Consumer spending doesn't look too promising for tonight's data. Again, i hope I am wrong.