Retail Sales fail to deliver

(Posted in Singapore 730pm Tuesday)
(Updated in S'pore 0040am Wednesday)

Retail Sales data from the US failed to impress. It rose (0.4%) less than (0.7%) expected in January. Getting deep into the data, prior months (retail sales and ex auto data) were revised downwards!

On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe’s bond auction, results in strong auction demand with a good take up, coupled with improved yields. (The Euro is holding steady around 1.32 and the major indices are much above the flat line.) The auctions come from the Dutch, Spanish, Greece, Italy and Belgium.

In addition the German sentiment index, ZEW was up sharply at 5.4 from -21.6 in January vs. the median forecast of -12.0. Other European data was within range.

Should Retail Sales comes in stronger, the US major indices would spike through the psychological resistances at the open. Whatever happens (after) depend on further noises from Europe/Greece and reaction to Moody’s rating moves. Unfortunately, Retail Sales data for current and prior month  were NOT favorable.

Hence, the data tonight will be focus on Retail Sales. My speculation is based on the flow over of the Santa rally, January sales and very strong US NFP data and the Unemployment rate! While my speculation was also based on January data which was revised downwards, the US major indices were down 0.2% on average - the data was disappointing.

The clock is tiking, tick tick tick...had stopped!