Sun Tzu Art of War

Most of us have heard of SUN Tzu. There was a ‘rumour’ Sun Tzu wrote a script on the Art of War. After his era, kings, prince, emperors, etc were searching for the script. Eventually the script was found.

One of Sun Tzu’s knowledge was related to understanding the weather. You may have heard how he used the weather to his advantage to win his battles (544 BC - 496 BC) during the Warring States Period.. In one battle he 'forecasted' the eclipse of the Sun to surprise the enemy.

Courtesy from Anonymous: Another well known strategist, Zhuge Liang (181–234; lived during the Three Kingdoms Era, of the China history; a latter period than Sun Tzu), who studied the stars, astronomy and weather patterns "borrowed" the East Wind to defeat Cao Cao at the battle at Red Cliff.

How does this relate to market trends?

The above is related to understanding the weather or climate. In this case, the financial equivalent is relating to the macros, economic data, geo-politics, music and noises happening in the financial market. And to filter/massage the actual events.

While most of you invest in counter stocks, foreign exchange, etfs, etc you are either ignorant or ignore the above or choose to ignore the above. But I hope the above would generate interest for you to equip yourself with the financial climate. Hence, you would have a better understanding why equities will behave more illogical than before!

Others in brief. The above is Understanding the weather.

·         Do you understand yourself? Risk profile, tolerant, patience, discipline,etc

·        Do you understand your terrain? Just stocks? Units trusts? Forex? Etfs? (For diversification)

·         Who’s your friend or enemy?

Without a ‘set’ of the above, how do you read the financial market? Who are your enemy? What sort of ‘terrain’ do you understand and use to your advantage? Etc...

If you admire Sun Tzu, his knowledge, the history he created and to relate how his Art of War manual can be used to your advantage in your personal investment, please equip yourself with knowledge, plan a strategy and execute your strategy with discipline.

In other words, please stop trading and investing blindly. I’ve witnessed

·         too many investors being slaughtered, time and again, without understand where is ignorance IS!

·        banks, investment advisors who does not have any idea what is/are financial markets, hence

·         without understanding the climate, how does he have a plan/strategy

·         how does he plan to go for a battle

·         What tools, strategy would he use, etc...?

·         How does he provide professional advice???

Remember and note: When you invest, you are strongly advised NOT to buy the stock, the Forex, the UT fund, the commodity, etc (all these are 'dead') but the 'advice' of your professional investment advisor because his best product is his advise!. Choose your investment advisor intelligently.

In conclusion, if you still do not understand what I am trying to relate, take my advice. Do not invest.


If you agree with the above AND you wish to help your friends, please forward the post to your friends such that they may understand investment better. The finance.sg is just one collection of financial bloggers. Your assistance and loyalty will enhance the blog and me and YOUR firends. This equates to a win-win-win situation!

On a separate post, Greece needs more than an AMD, in a situation where an individual is on a life support system, he is supported medically by life support machines. In this case, Greece had been financially unsound for three years on a life support system draining the finances of his siblings (Europe), currently has no government and a decision, whether to continue on the life support system in mid June through elections is NOT the solution to Greece problems.

Fortunately, Greece had a chance to 'wake up' from his 'coma' and decides on election day! There's more to this or the AMD...

I hope the above will assist you to relate the situation is Greece from an AMD point of view and the future of Europe and trading partners of Europe! 

Read next post:

Declines inAsian Bank, Property Stocks Yield Rich Dividends

Greece needs more than an AMD

AMD is a medical term for Advance Medical Directive. As the name implies it is an advance of a medical directive in the event the individual is depended on a life support system.

I hope most of you had been informed by your financial planner that there exists an AMD in Singapore.  Currently, there is no cost to planning an AMD. The cost of not knowing/planning/executing an AMD is the financial burden or cost that your loved ones, dependants will have to fork out while keeping the life support system for you. Talk to your financial planner or your family doctor to get a fresh opinion.

The first stage, if Greece needs to execute the AMD is mid-June when the Greeks have to go to the polls. (pardon my punchline, is there a Greek government?) The result may/may not determine if Greece will stay with the Euro. Otherwise the can will be kick further down the road. As the play kicking the can successfully for the last three years, they will find that the wall is just a few metes ahead. No more room to kick.

While the focus had been Greece and Spain or Europe for the matter, the Grexit had overshadowed much event globally. Please be reminded that

·         Weak global growth is still a primary concern as witnessed by the camp of Energy speculators driving crude oil prices down

·         The relative strength/rise in the US dollar as a safe haven against most currencies signifies flow to safe haven and withdrawing/unwinding of carry trades in currencies.

·         Europe probably going into a technical recession affecting major trading partners – US, China, Japan and not forgetting global partners. Fall in exports; manufacturing, industrial production says it all.

While the strength in the US dollar on a back to back weekly rise, most currencies including Asian currencies are weakening dramatically resulting in lower GDP growth and rising inflation.

Unless global FM and leaders come to a quick and decisive plan, I wouldn’t be able to see how this ‘salted fish’ situation would ever be able to swim again. Hence, I would not be able to see how the current relief or ‘breather’ in equities market is going to last beyond this week where ‘packed’ financial data are to be released over the next couple of days...

Only the brave with a strong heart coupled with lots of lady luck could eke out a gain in this situation. That is what investment is all about - NO RISK NO GAIN. But i won't fall into this situation.

Read next--> Two bold predictions for Singapore
SUN TZU Art of War
Boom Gloom and Doom

Two bold predictions for Singapore

If you have been following my posts – risk management, the following will impact most of us

1.    There will be a major change in the insurance industry as Singaporeans are getting more insurance savvy and demand for better and suitable products

2.    In housing loans, while most of you have been debating and timing between fix, floating or hybrid interest rates, did most of you measure the future affordability when rates increase to 3-4%. As a result, where would most of you have the additional cash to finance the mortgage loans???

Since the financial crisis/Lehman back to 2008, Singaporeans have been enjoying competitive housing interest rates for almost 4 years. As always, most Singaporeans fail to see financial impacts while enjoying with their high standard of living and comfort.

BUT When (2) occurs (it will definitely occur as a result of global growth), situations will occur and WILL impact most Singaporeans, financial industry, stock market and the economy!

The above post is a reminder to Singaporeans/PRs/mortgage loan owners who may not be savvy enough to identify, recognize and visualize the financial impact UNTIL it is TOO late.

What should you do next? Are your financial planners, HNW bankers thinking OUT OF THE BOX? (I doubt so as they're out to make more money from you.) Make sure you engage the right financial planner to access the financial impact. In addition, if you find my posts interesting, do not keep it in your drawer/inbox/trash but please forward to your freinds and share the thoughts....

My warning comes ... such that you are advised to make and take precautions and not become as a victim to the above events.

The following is just my personal opinions which differs from most investors, economists, etc who are much highly experience than my humble self.

Read more on:

Greece needs more than an AMD
Boom Gloom and Doom
SUN TZU Art of War

Boom Gloom and Doom

When all seems Boom Gloom and Doom in the month of May, the reverse happens.

My posts had been helping you, ‘the audience’ to avoid bear markets as far back as May 2011 and market rally as far back Nov 2011. In my previous posts on market trends

Tug of war - Bull vs. Bear Ends. Financial market plunges. What's next

The following abstract...

“However, having provided all the bad news.... here comes my technical reading.

Technically, RSI and various indicators signal ‘oversold’ levels. The big boys, fund houses may have program buying at key technical support levels. Hence, there’s a strong possibility the market would take a short breather from these oversold positions.

Following which markets may rally depend on the rebound or if short covering is triggered. We’ll cross this bridge at the appropriate time”.

1. Coincidentally, US and Europe markets reversed course following my post. The US and Europe markets returned a positive week after string of weekly losses! How coincident!

2. The last Para may/may not happen and it depends on situations and events.

3. The above remark can be found in many news provider which included and warned 'signs' still show a sell trade, which i omitted from my post as a result of 'my set' of technical indicators which differs from theirs!

The Greek election is in mid June. Between now and then, this week is pack with heavy data

·         Initial jobless claims, ADP reports, nonfarm payroll, unemployment data

·         US GDP

·         China PMI

Would we continue to receive weak data from US and China? Guess work is not in my dictionary.

Read next -->
Greece needs more than an AMD
Two bold predictions for Singapore

  

Are your existing insurance plan suitable?

Thank you, audience for a well received posting on

·         In search of higher income and better standard of living. What's missing?

·         Tug of war - Bull vs. Bear Ends. Financial market plunges. What's next?

I had lots of emails and queries regarding suitability. We have talks/seminar on investment suitability, Client Knowledge Assessment, Product Suitability, etc but what is insurance suitability?

First of all, I am impressed/surprised that most Audience picked up this insurance jargon ‘suitability’. Congrats!

Hence, the common question is what did I mean by the above title?

In Singapore's context, the following is just ONE example...Take for e.g. Mr. Chan who wants to start off an insurance plan for his daughter Age, 19.

His preference is to cover the child for Sum Assured of S$ 300,000 for

1.    premature death

2.    total & permanent disability (TPD)

3.    terminal illness (TI)

4.    critical illness (CI) or major illness coupled with early stage dread disease benefit

5.    AND cash values of S$ 100,000 at age 64/65 thereabouts.

The operative on (5) is ‘AND’ and this is where the word suitability is in question.

If (1) – (5) were my client’s preference; the above plan from MOST insurers will NOT meet the client’s preference.

Let’s go through the above case one by one.

Should premature death occur or TPD or TI or CI was to be diagnosed, S$ 300,000 would be paid out as the event accelerates the basic plan benefits.

The question of concern is

·         What would happen to the Cash value at age 64? Upon claim of any of the above,

·         would the life assured be guaranteed of another insurance plan,

·         would the life assured buy an endowment plan (for retirement funding)

·         Would the life assured receive the Cash value at Age 54/65 then???

If the Cash value is not important, then why did you choose a whole life plan? Wouldn’t a term plan lower the cost of the premium? But, please don’t come and say that term plan has no cash value. Know your needs; is it protection you’re looking for?

What is the probability for claims one to four?

·         Death – once

·         TPD once

·         TI once

·         Major illness – more than once

·         Early stage detection – in addition to more than once, early is earlier!

You be the judge! Is the plan well designed to fulfil the needs of Mr. Tan.? Is the plan suitable for his daughter?

How could the above be avoided?

You can’t, now!  By ‘insurance’ statistics, most of you subscribed to the above plan. The possible source of the problem is you ‘employed’ an insurance agent or a financial planner who does not have a single idea of what financial planning is ALL about. Some might understand but may not have recommended products that are suitable but of convenience!

Fortunately, this gives me an opportunity to highlight any solutions that are not suitable for their clients! So, did your insurance agent earn his rightful commission or should professional fees be paid for highlighting this plan that is not suitable for the client?

If you’re in this situation how this could be rectified. The choice is go back to your insurance agent or financial advisor. If you wish to have a fresh opinion, you may contact financial practitioners who know what risk management is all about, preferably 15 years or more! It can be made right!

Hence, what’s missing?

Read next--> Two bold predictions for Singapore
SUN TZU Art of War
Greece needs more than an AMD
Boom Gloom and Doom

In search of higher income and better standard of living. What's missing?

In my 16 years of practical experience being in the financial industry, I’ve assisted a handful in claims – death and diagnosis of major illness. Fortunately, all claims were processed and approved. Their loved ones and dependants are ‘well’ taken care off.

I am writing to you as I am very concern for most of you – in the area of personal financial risk management.

My primary objective as a financial planner is to assist you to identify ‘pitfalls’ in your personal financial risk management. Your responsibility is to identify the goals and prioritize your goals in terms of importance to you.

Be it taboo/’pantang’/superstition, actual financial planning is not executed. The result of not having a financial plan is planning to fail. This results in creating a financial impact to you, loved ones and dependants.

The reality/facts.

We complete our education, find a job/career, start a family, buy a house, and pay off our debts while planning for retirement. However, in this search of climbing the corporate ladder, earning a better income while starting a family, many (NOT all) are in search of higher income.

In my opinion, the primary objectives of most family are a higher income and a better standard of living. What I am concerned about is that the improvement in income and a better standard of living does not equate to a proportionate level of savings, investments, retirement funding, protection of future income for future expenses for self, loved ones and dependants.

Why is that so? The common reasons are:

No money, no worry, no hurry. Hence, the issue is that when they reach pre-retirement, the time factor, health factor, insurability factor may be too little too late.

It won’t happen to me. But when it does and you’re financially not prepared, the impact will create a financial burden to self, loved ones and dependants. Financial worries, unhappiness, quarrels, etc would surface.

Financial planning was not taught in your childhood school days. But even if they did, it involves a large amount of planning and discipline.

Are you planning to fail? How much financial impact will you encounter? Have you done sufficient planning for self, loved ones and dependants? Are your current risk management SUITABLE for your financial needs? Or jump off the plane and find out you’re not wearing a parachute.

In order to avoid a financial impact that will burden self, love ones and dependants, I would strongly recommend that you seek your first financial planning review and subsequently annual reviews without further delay. In conclusion, having a sound financial plan and executing the plan with discipline would ensure a financial peace of mind. Of course, the choice is yours and we set our own destination.

Are you financially prepared? Or do you plan to FAIL.

In brief, most Singaporean while climbing the corporate ladder, earning a better income and experiencing a better standard of living fails to invest in their most important asset – their potential income. Hence, when the inevitable happens, fortunes are lost, they experience big ticket expenses and loss of potential income to supplement their expenses, standard of living and not forgetting retirement needs!

Raed next --> Are your existing insurance plan suitable?

Tug of war - Bull vs. Bear Ends. Financial market plunges. What's next

The above article commenced mid February with Part 2 in March and Part 3 in April. My benchmark for the tug of war list of events is the DJI ranging from 12800 to 13000. I had picked the above title, then, is because my speculation was that market would trend sideways until the next key events.

The DJI did not reach 13800 which is my technical resistance. The technical support was 12,400 which were breached last week. This demonstrates the risk-reward that was not favourable where market prices IS too high.

In Part 3, I speculated that the market would undergo a correction which you all probably know the answer by now.

Last week, DJI closed below 12,400 together with S&P500 and Nasdaq closing down for the week back to back. Hence, the tug of war or range trading had ended. Leading to the correction were the following list of events:

·         GDP were weak then

·         Currencies were lower (not USD) signalling higher inflation

·         Trade figures were generally weak

·         PMI were generally weak

·         China data continues to be of concern

·         Europe is a primary concern – Greece, Spain, etc

·         US GDP and nonfarm payrolls were weak (not an exhaust list)

·         Adding more insult to the market correction.

The above signals weak growth, higher inflation. This leads to my concern. Aren’t Central Bank and governments in a dilemma again? Monetary policies? Pardon my language – Screwed and f!@#$d??

However, having provided all the bad news.... here comes my technical reading.

Technically, RSI and various indicators signal ‘oversold’ levels. The big boys, fund houses may have program buying at key technical support levels. Hence, there’s a strong possibility the market would take a short breather from these oversold positions.

Following which markets may rally depend on the rebound or if short covering is triggered. We’ll cross this bridge at the appropriate time.

Carry trades

The global sentiment is risk-off. Volatility is high. This leads to unwinding of carry trades in currencies. Hence, safe haven currencies are sought after. The Yen and US dollar rises. Other currencies including commodity currencies weaken. This leads to a fall in commodities – mining, agriculture, etc.

Fundamentally, economic data are weak. There are global growth concerns. And without any geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Oil prices fall. That’s the good news!

Gold. The previous posts ended with Gold testing US 1790. The demand and supply would be determined by QE3 and the US dollar instead of safe heaven. With NO QE3 in sight then. I mentioned fat hope. As expected Gold plummeted to my mentioned support of US$ 1530 thereabouts, did anyone catch the price there? With NO QE3 in sight and if Gold would extend the rally, then I suggest you review your bargain hunting strategy in your investment portfolio.

At the moment, do NOT go all out and buy whatever your reasons is cheap PER, low RSI, etc but simply follow your simple strategy on entry points coupled with a determined discipline to cut losses. Dollar cost averaging will be strongly recommended for a 6-12 months time horizon.

On a separate matter...

Properties. This is probably your biggest and longest investment. Most, if not all would take the longest tenure. Here’s the problem most of you do not see. You’ll be paying the biggest loan and let the bank earn your money. Your principal gets lowered very very slowly. But, while interest rates are low, it is favoured to take the shortest term and lowest loan.  Your interest gets paid more and your principal gets reduced faster. If you chose the former, most of you will be in a BIG financial problem when housing loan rates accelerate to 2-3% and higher. More cash would be paid, affecting your cash flow and liquidity. Review your refinancing loan to avoid this very probable disaster you ever make.

The main point here is future afforability. Do not be blinded by low interest rates. Do NOT stretch your loan. It's ONLY a short term benefit. On the flip side of the coin you should take the opportunity of paying less interest at a shorter tenure with the lowest loan! Anyone disagrees with this point?