YTD global statistics for Insights

(Posted Saturday 3pm, Nov 12th 2011)

Insights into Risk Management & Financial Markets is a blog which provides timely information on global markets. In addition, we try to provide our own opinion of market movements that makes Market Sense of investors’ psychology in Asia, Europe and the US.

The popular categories are Evergreen, Market Trends, Investing and Global Financial Crisis.

The following are audience YTD in percentage terms:

Audience	YTD
Singapore	68.14%	1
United States	8.84%	2
Indonesia	6.81%	3
Malaysia	2.41%	4
Hong Kong	1.42%	5
United Kingdom	0.82%	6
India	0.79%	7
Russia	0.76%	8
Australia	0.63%	9
Germany	0.58%	10
Others	8.81%
Total	100.00%

The following are audience for the previous month in percentage terms:

Audience	Monthly	Previous
Singapore	55.40%	1
Indonesia	19.60%	3
United States	6.11%	2
Slovenia	3.16%	-
Russia	2.72%	8
Malaysia	2.55%	4
Germany	1.49%	10
United Kingdom	1.19%	6
India	0.92%	7
Sweden	0.83%	-
Others	6.02%
Total	100.00%

The audience is growing very well. I like to thank the audience from Indonesia, Russia and Germany for assisting to promote the blog

Insights into Risk Management & Financial Markets Insights into

Again, we THANK YOU!

YTD major benchmark performance 2011 Nov 11th

(Posted Saturday 2pm)

As you probably know, the major US benchmark indices are back in the black with a slight gain, despite the noises in Europe (Greece and Italy). US GDP Q3 and a few economic data fared better lessening US fears in global growth concerns.

With concerns in Greece and Italy easing, the US markets closed the week with gains. The US markets posted 5 week of gains out of six. Was there a 'hint' that triggered this rally? Read the next blog: Where global economy is heading 4-6 weeks from now? Conclusion

As always, there will be continued volatility in global markets. BUT the main point to note is despite high volatility the lows and high are getting higher indicating a trend that is moving north, that is, RISK ON.

The following are the performance of other major benchmark in Europe and Asia Pacific (despite a ‘risk on’ in respective indices). Should markets turn back from ‘red’ to ‘black’, would the losses be potential gains?

Symbol	Country	Up/down (%)	Remarks
AORD	Australia	-10.12
SSEC	China	-13.08
HSI	Hong Kong	-18.34
BSESN	Mumbai, India	-16.38
JKSE	Jakarta, Indonesia	+01.38
KLSE	KL, Malaysia	-04.22
N225	Japan	-18.12
STI	Singapore	-13.75
KS11	South Korea	-09.98
TWII	Taiwan	-18.12
GDAXI	Germany	-13.34
FCHI	France	-19.26
FTSE	England	-07.79
DJI	Dow Jones	+01.89
IXIC	Nasdaq	-00.08
GSPC	S&P500	-02.32
BVSP	Bovespa, Brazil	-16.32
MERV	Buenos Aires, Argentina	-24.16
MXX	Mexico	-02.72

Source: Yahoo/Charts/Interactive/Ytd.

As usual, work is done (no charge). I love to share information. I also hope the above is informative for your investment decisions, portfolio diversification and asset allocation.

In my opinion (imo), the other indicators I would look out for are the PMI, CPI/PPI, consumer sentiment/confidence, GDP and MPM (Monetary Policy Meetings where they set benchmark interest rates).

If you find the post/blog of added value and timely posted, feel free to add me in Google, Facebook, Twitter, Email, etc. In return, a small favor I ask, please help your friends with valuable and timely information by forwarding the post thru twitter, facebook, Google or emails.

I like to thank my Indonesian audience that has increase readership by 10 folds in the last two months, second only to my local country, Singapore. Thank You.

Pessimistic Asia, Confused Europe, Frustrating US

(Posted Thursday, 10pm Singapore time)

I would sum up the investors’ mindset for Asia, Europe and the US with the following words; pessimistic, confused and frustrating.

Why?

Asia – Most (but not all) of the time while US has triple digit gains, Asia trends the other way. Asia closed in a sea of red today!

Europe – Vultures flying around Greece and then towards Italy. Lots of noises in Greece/Italy regarding Premiership! Finally, the Greece PM has been named! Much more optimistic than yesterday with Italian bond yield lower than 7% because of (suspicion that) ECB is buying Italian bond auctions, and the naming of the Greek PM!

U.S.A. From the man himself – frustrating growth!

Where the markets should be heading?

Reinforcing my previous post, global markets should have seen the bottom prior to Oct 4^th 2011. From the largest economy, the US is harvesting better Q3 GDP at 2.5%. From the 2^nd largest economy, China is in control (so far) on inflation as the CPI had dipped lower than 6%. Higher imports from the 2^nd largest economy with the US and Europe had risen.

Coupled with Emerging markets support for growth rather than combating inflation, Brazil Australia, Indonesia, etc had shaved off 25-50 basis point cut in their latest MPMs.

The 'frustrating' noise hindering a rally in global markets is the investors concern with the EZ playing ping-pong between Greece and Italy. While the (new) Greece PM issue out of the way, and the lowering of Italian bond yields below the psychological point of 7%, major benchmark indices (at point of writing) in Europe is above the flat line while US futures are showing a rally.

Updated Friday, 1201 am. Italian 10 year bond yields are getting shaky again trying to test the 7% level again. Europe and US markets had paired gains.

Updated Friday 755 am. At the close, the Italian Govt. bonds close at 6.886. A relief for the day. Similarly, all three benchmark indices closed higher for the day almost 1% while the Nasday closed up 0.13%.

Rumors from unknown sources that the EZ is speeding up with the literature on leverage of the EFSF and bank recapitalization is supporting ‘risk on’ from an oversold Wednesday.

I am still pretty optimistic with a Q4 and Santa Claus rally to the end of the year!

  

Bear market territory. Says who? Italian bloodbath next week?

(Posted Sat 415 am, weekend read)

Bear market territory, says who? That is history since October 4th!

In fact, the US benchmark indices: Dow and S&P are in bull market territory. The measurement for correction and bear market are 10% and 20% respectively. Hence, the Dow and S&P which reached 12,000 and 1,290 last month had more than 20% gains since the first week of October.

Similarly, in HK, the low was around 16,000. The high recorded recently was 19,200. Similarly, South Korea, Indonesia, etc have risen 18-21% from the low in October.

At time of posting, Singapore time Sat, 130 am, "the Italian FM warns the PM, If You Don't Resign, There's Going To Be A Bloodbath In The Markets On Monday" (We really don't need this. The Director of ths EU saga needs to be shot!) This will make a count of TWO (resignations) in total if the Greek vote of confidence is YES!

US benchmark indices closes an average of 0.5% on Friday. For the week, the US indices closes down ranging from 2-2.5% for the week snapping a 5 week winning streak.


The Greek vote of confidence is still running at 415 am.


Updated Saturday. Greek wins vote of confidence.

Greek PM wins vote! What's next

(Posted Friday, 930pm)

The US payroll data came in at local time 830pm which faired lower than consensus with the prior month data revised upwards. Unemployment came in at 9% vs 9.1% for the month of September.

Tonight or rather early morning Friday (Singapore time 5am) is the all important event of the week: The vote of confidence for the bailout package. For many, the carrot for a vote of confidence will be the (sad) resignation of their PM.

The immediate reaction would be a rally to the weekend. The PM will resign and a ‘temp’ government would hold. The bad cloud still lingers as then, an election campaign would be the next itinerary.

The question then would be ‘would the opposition support for reforms view it as a betrayal’ as the bailout package comes with a price: spending cuts, austerity, etc.

Hence, if the vote of confidence is a YES, then PM will resign and the next itinerary would be the Greek election campaign. The saga continues… (Read next post: The Italian saga begins! we do not need this. Get your act together)

Penny for your thoughts: Would not the referendum suggested by the PM be seen as a one step approach to end the ALL Greek saga?

Have a great weekend everyone!

Greece referendum stamps future concerns. Must read!

(Posted Thursday 1230 pm)

The core of all (immediate) global uncertainty is Greece. That goes without saying. It is not so good for Greece, the EU, the US, China and for the whole world.

Was Greece PM call for a referendum logical/right?

In my opinion, YES!

You have been hearing all the bad news, comments from all over, the EU, large economies, Finance Ministers, etc.

·         Is he crazy?

·         Is he chopping off the hands that feed you?

·         Is he meddling with politics, etc?

·         Is he throwing the whole world into another financial crisis?

There are TWO sides to a coin! You’ve heard of one side.

It is a classic case of investors’ behavior between the US and the Asians interpreting Greece PM’s move! Though the US market closed with triple digit gains last night, the Asians are pushing for a triple digit loss this morning.

While thinking out of the box, here is my opinion of the other side of a coin!

Yes, the EU summit had come up with a 3 step solution to stamp the European sovereign crisis. The Greek package of a PSI 50% haircut is agreed upon.

When all goes well, global investors rejoiced as was what we witnessed last week.

1.    Is Greece a democratic parliament? Yes

2.   Are the Greeks pleased with the aid/ bailout package? More than 50% NO

3.   Could they take the package and then disagree/revolt after receiving the handout? There is every possibility because of (2). Wouldn’t this be the next ticket to an endless, fearful roller coaster ride?

The call for a referendum by the Greece PM is to stamp ALL (future) roller coaster rides whether the outcome of the referendum is favorable or not! He does not want a quick answer. HE wants a confident solution. Hence the referendum!

In my opinion, I think the Greek PM is trying to energize confidence into the financial markets. Everyone is pushing the EU to a FAST answer without thinking of possible consequences leading to another disaster! It is just not clearly interpreted by MOST people, the objective by such a move. Sad!

Until most, if not ALL global investors, leaders of G20, Finance Ministers, etc notice/realize the objective of his call for a referendum, global investors’ mentality will dominate the market. And even if your understanding is logical, you will still need to move with the herds' mentality. Sad, very sad.

·         Are the Greek happy with the aid package?

·         Do they prefer the use of the Euro currency than the drachma?

Hence, the above will guide the Greeks to a conclusion to the referendum and stamp out ALL future concerns arising out of Greece.

If you like this article, please click LIKE, add me on Facebook, Twitter or forward this post to all you think finds this post beneficial. This again, would certainly receive more audience. Thanks for visiting my blog at seettpat.blogspot.com. I hope this blog is posted before the headlines!

Greece Referendum explained. WTF happening?

(Posted Wednesday 12pm)

In case you had second thoughts, WTF is the abbreviation for Wednesday Thursday and Friday!

So, WTF’s happening globally.

·         Last Wednesday was D Day. If the EU summit had failed then, financial markets would make Lehman a child’s toy. The summit dragged onto early hours of Thursday morning before ‘the package’ was agreed on. Asia and Europe market rallied.

·         By Thursday evening, the US GDP figures came in very positive at 2.5%. Coupled with the early euphoria of the 3 package deal in Europe, financial markets roared all the way to US close. Most high yield assets like the Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie, Yen, Gold & Silver, shares, equities, Commodities moved substantially higher towards the month end of October, with the exception of the US dollar and Treasuries.

·         Friday was basically consolidation mood.

By Monday, Japan intervened (helping Japanese exporters at month end closing) the JPY unilaterally curbing the rally of the high yield assets.

By Monday evening, the Greece PM unleashed his ‘weapon’ announcing a referendum to the EU bailout package. The EU Finance Ministers were notified by Tuesday morning.

Global FM were puzzled, the EU FMs were stunned and looked silly. Who would ever, had dream of this ‘stunning and daring’ act by the Greek PM? The event certainly jolted financial markets globally. Why was this not mentioned during the EU summit? The ‘joker’ in Greece PM sleeve may be the most stunning trick of ALL times! The rest is history.

For benefit of doubt the audience who may not had understood of this ‘referendum’

1.    Greece spends more than they earn

2.    Greece accumulate substantial debts

3.    Greece can’t pay their debts. Greece asks financial assistance.

4.    Greece may go bankrupt and triggers a credit default. This would trigger PIIGS and financial institution holding Greece debts and probably rest of Europe and eventually globally.

5.    The EU summit which ended last Thursday packaged a deal which includes a 50% haircut from private investors. All is fine and global investors cheered.

6.    The referendum announced is about the Prime Minister asking the Greece people, “Should we take the bailout package?”

7.    In other words, at the edge of bankruptcy and default, would you ask for a consensus when the life buoy was thrown towards you? This bewildered everyone.

8.    Instead of being at mercy to the rest of the world, the rest of the world is within Greece’s mercy.

9.  There’s no immediate announcement/details of when the referendum would be? Immediate, next week, month, next year? How would this relate to the G20 leaders meeting at Cannes? Going back to a roller coaster.

The whole drama is well played, directed no other than the Best Actor award of ALL times! Beginning today, that is Wednesday, it W T F again!


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Tonight or rather Thursday morning, the US FOMC delivers the FOMC statement followed by Ben Bernanke’s press conference at about 2am.